How to win the Conservative leadership contest
Originally published by The Times (Red Box), 17th May 2019
In the coming months, the Conservative Party could see over a dozen serious candidates emerge, all with a distinct pitch for why they should lead the party. With this many candidates in the field, the next leader will be decided by the party membership, not by Members of Parliament (MPs). The winning candidate will be the one who runs the most effective digital grassroots campaign, with a compelling message that appeals to the membership.
For those unfamiliar with the ins and outs of the Conservative Party leadership contest, it has two parts. The MPs ballot continues until two candidates are left standing, and what follows is a membership ballot. Any candidates who treat this second stage of the campaign as an afterthought are putting themselves at an immediate disadvantage.
Candidates must take their compelling message directly to the members without letting it be filtered or spun by the Westminster Village. Though the national press might set the agenda for the first phase of the election, the party membership tends to take a very different view, as was illustrated in 2001 when Iain Duncan-Smith won the membership ballot against Ken Clarke, who’d been the Westminster Village’s favoured candidate.
So what are some of the tactics you should put into play to run an effective campaign and stand out among your fellow candidates, and ultimately, appeal to the party membership?
Be in control of your communication
The latest public figures indicate that the Conservative Party has about 125,000 members. For context, that’s about the same population as Exeter, but spread across the country, so tailoring your message to make it relevant across this geographically dispersed group is crucial––the air war alone won’t win over members.
Unlike the Labour Party, Conservative candidates will not get a copy of the party’s membership data. The Conservative Party Headquarters stays in control of this data, and normally allows candidates to send out just a few emails to the national membership database at set times during the campaign. This means candidates will need to build their own database of members using powerful digital tools that will allow them to take control of their communications strategy, and push out their message when they deem the time is right.
The earlier you start this process, the more impactful it will be. You can begin by soliciting members’ views on key issues such as Brexit, the economy, and crime. All campaign teams should know early on what support they have in each association in order to leverage their advocates and endorsers that can bring fellow party members onboard. Similarly, you can mobilise these supporters to lobby their local MP to support you during the MPs ballot.
Social media won’t win it alone
Leadership campaigns have a tight spending limit and candidates will need to be smart with where they utilize their resources. While political parties have grown accustomed to spending millions on elections, the Conservative leadership election will be limited to a budget of £135,000 from the point at which it’s called. Given these financial constraints, digital campaigning will be crucial, because it will allow candidates to get more bang for their buck.
Digital is even more cost-effective when campaigns encourage their supporters to distribute and promote content. In a competition like this one, organic reach can go a long way in helping candidates connect with their target audience through personal networks.
But a solid digital strategy can’t rely on social media alone. Though having 100,000 Facebook followers has its value, some of that value is diminished in the context of the leadership contest if, for example, only 1,000 of those followers are Conservative Party Members.
Additionally, building up your technical infrastructure can be key to tracking who the specific members you’re targeting are, which ones may need more persuading, and which are locked in and willing to go the extra mile for you.
With uncertainty around the timing of the leadership contest, candidates who have yet to begin building up their grassroots support have some time––may it be a month, or even a year––to hit the ground running.